Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Experiment

Posted by Mahesh


It is not that i , myself am fully in agreement with
such system. That is why i call it experiemnt. It may
fail miserably. Or it may succeed. The two points you
talked about are true too. But here are my reasons:
1) Even if govt machinery can have better
intelligence, question is "do we have access to it?".
As people/citizen of this country, do we have access
to intelligence of govt? We wont..so for people we
should have people centeric intelligence.
2) Terrorist may have what ever problems, we (as
people of this country) can't solve it. We have to
worry about what is happenign to us. And what is
happening is, we are dying.

Also, i agree that there'r better options.
Perticularly,
1 (joining politics) and 3 (forming parallel
military).

We need to think more on the system. Family is
responsibility. I think i can take any risk, exactly
because i have family. If i would have been alone, i
would have have tried to risk myself for someone else.
Now, what inspires me is safety of my family.

My Thoughts

Posted by Ravi

On the onset, let me make it clear that I admire and respect anybody’s strive to come up with a solution. Any success to the system like this means my child will live in better and safer world, and for that reason alone, I can commit time, energy, and money for a cause like this. I also admit that being skeptical is very easy; on the other hand, we always need the optimistic leaders who have got passion and enough support to achieve highly difficult tasks like this.



Having said that, I must say, very sincerely, that I am not convinced on the feasibility of the idea and that the passionate people should spend time in following it. Not that it really matters if one person is not convinced; but following are my reasons, if you care:



1. You would agree that the intelligent system like the one you envision can better be achieved by the organizations like intelligent agencies, police, government. Because, obviously enough, they have right infrastructure, right network, right authorities. You may argue that these organizations are biased. Yeah, they may be; but that’s our fate. If you want to do something, change them to become unbiased, change them to become effective, change them be become better. Hence I like the other option you mentioned in your first mail of joining the politics.



2. I sincerely believe and you would agree that trying to stop the terrorists’ activities without trying to understand the reason behind those is like attacking the symptom and not the root cause. I believe the terrorism is a symptom of some root cause that probably we don’t understand well. For example, a certain community, as per their scripture, believe that they should expand their species all over the world by conquering the land. Now, clearly this belief is not in harmony with nature. This is one out of probably hundred causes that we don’t know of. As another example: there was a program on TV called “India Times Enclave”. Musharraf was answering the questions related the Kashmir . The questions were being asked by Indian high profile businessmen, journalists, actors, politicians, sportsmen. What I observed in Musharraf’s answers that he and his people truly believe that a certain part of Kashmir belongs to them. I am not pro-Mussharraf or anti-Indian, but the point is that they believe that the Kashmir is theirs as mush as we believe that Kashmir is ours. If we both hold our premises and try to solve the problem, I don’t see how the problem can be solved and how terrorism can be prevented. One easy way to solve the Kashmir issue is to do an all-out war. Gone the days of Roman emperors, in the modern times of ours, nobody wins in a war, everybody looses. A better way to solve the Kashmir issue is to increase the financial, educational, cultural ties. Make those mostly uneducated fanatics understand that there is more value in such ties than fighting over the land. This will take time; but I believe it will work, and I think that’s the stand India is taking, and I think the situation is improving every passing year.



The above point # 2 kind of got a bit deviated (though very important and true), and I understand that terrorism is a problem we would want to try to counter as soon as possible otherwise we risk the lives of our nears and dears. So from that point of view, and because you believe the idea will work, you can count me in. I will be “disagree but committed”. Or better even, come up with other more convincing ideas. By the way, the best thing about your original idea is that it appears relatively easy to realize. Some other obvious ideas come to my mind, but those all are difficult to achieve and are very demanding and long term in nature, and I know I can’t work on those ideas, I am sorry! That’s another reason, I would follow your idea. The ideas I am talking about are (and these are very obvious, by the way):


1. Join politics, influence the systems like police, government to do right things. (This is very long term, needs passion, skills, and a lot. This will yield best results).

2. Create a network, spot some Muslims that we think have modern and right conscience and who share our thoughts. Use them to influence other uneducated and fanatic Pakistanis to understand that terrorism is wrong.

3. Hope (or try) that “Chatrapati” (he could be among us) emerges back and leads us to fight the terrorism using “ganimi kava”. (This is exciting, 3-4 years back I would have thought of following such leader, not any more. I have family - worried of them, and don’t think have enough guts).

How to use the system

Posted by Mahesh

See the system will never tell where the attack is going to happen.
(or is it? If system is sufficiently complex and there really is some
hidden patter to catch? Magic :) ). Anyway, the use of system is for
analysis of attacks and making the information available at one place.
There are social engineering methods to find out who is who. I read
some analysis on 9/11 hijackers. They created simple map with
connectivity among people. The one who has most connections is master
mind ! If all the data is at one place and you have graphic tools
available to plot them in various ways. You will see, who is connected
to who and how !!!

Interesting topic

Posted by Atul

This is interesting topic.

I wanted to post some points in this thread but office-work is
killing me.

Anyways, let me try to put it though am in hurry.. please excuse for
typos if any...

If we expecting people to enter data about terrorists after they
attacks somewhere, then this data could be available to us even by
searching net. Coz terrorist attacks is not small thing and comes on
net in the form of news or so. However, info about terrorists involved
is again a questions ! Nobody still knows who was actually involved in
1993 blasts.

But if we assuming here that:
"People will know about existance of terrorists around them"

Then I really doubt if this holds true. Because as long as I know,
for common man, its very difficult to identify person involved in
terrorist activities. Terrorist plans are pretty transperant to comman
man. People comes to know only when police kills/caught those
terrorists. And I believe police gets this info by detectives who gets paid for
it and so detectives would least bother to publish anywhere on net, the
info they are having. Sometimes even detectives also fails to foil the
plan and they (terrorists) succeeds !

I've heard of incidences where gangsters were staying in apartments
as common man (I think in Kolhapur district itself) and kids even use
to play with them. Everyone come to know about their reality only
when police encountered them !!

In case of recent incidents, police raided and arrested few guys
(terrorists) with RDX somewhere in Marathwada.

The leader was local guy, but has been found connected with
terrorists network. Till that time people around him was knowing him as
"nice and gentle" guy !!

Also, I believe more dangerous than terrorists are those people who
co-operates them. In recent blasts, it is strongly suspected that
without local citizens (Gaddaars) co-operation, such a nasty
operation is impossible.

Finding traces of their network is real challenge, even agencies in
US also not able to achieve. They even don't communicate on phones or
even direct emails. Because they know they can be traced out easily
by that. Last I heard was Al-Quayda network uses images containing
encrypted msgs.

We gotta consider these.

Access to general public

Posted by Mahesh

4 Kind of access modes can be kept.
1) Web
2) SMS
3) Phones
4) Postcard

out of which 1 and 2 can be handled automatically by system.
For 3 and 4 we'll have to dedicate our time. So for initial
stages, 1 and 2 are good option.

Access problem

Considering that the system is accessible to general public.. how
each and every person in India will have a access? there are around 5
Crore internet users and around 15 Crore cell/land line users.. we can
say about 17-18 Crore persons can access this system..
but what about rest of the people?...

Concerns

Posted by Mahesh

Also to answer first point of Ravi.
5/10 years to catch the pattern is not bad idea. My belief is
Terrorism is here to stay. I won't be surprised if there are terror
groups 1000 years in future (if humans survive). All those Sci-Fi
stories do show terror groups on Mars and other parts of galaxies :).
Human society is complex network, terrorists put stress on these
network. So that these networks don't become static, instead they keep
fighting to reach perfection. Much like defence system of our body.
So as long as we have societies, we will have terrorism. The problem
won't be solved, we can control it to some extent. But, we can't solve
it!
ex: You give Kashmir now, and hope it is solved. In another 20 yrs
some one will fight for Punjab, Tamilnadu or say Hydrabad :). One
person with brian damaging idea is good enough to inspire people to
fight.

Concerns

Posted by Mahesh

I have those doubts in mind too. Ofcourse open means available to
anybody. Even compatitors! Isn't linux code available to solaris as
well as microsoft? And as Ganesh pointed out, we are talking of
experiment. We cannot know the outcome of the system beforehand. It is
complex system, where millions of minds will interact. If we go by
darwin, life itself is order in chaos. What i mean to say is, though
the system will be chaotic, some pattern will emerge. We should have
necessary tools to find out those patterns.
System can be based on life like principles, where false input is
given -ve points and good inputs +ve.
The member id who gives more +ve input slowly becomes trusted member.
There will be people who are into rumours, we may call them green
terrorists. Say someone put "Rajmane is terrorist". It is rumor and
i'll be green. Once he comes into news, he moves to say orange..with
more proofs he becomes yellow and a hardcore known (like bin laden) is
red.
We have to comeout with rules, by which names will be added deleted.
Rules themselves will be subject of review and we change them as and
when it is needed.
Mostly poeple who are interested in sharing intelligence or disrupting
intelligence will create member-ids to add/delete. For read, system is
available to any1 (no need of id).
Even addition deletion wont be one mans job. There will be reference
counts, something like confidence level of members. Say 100 members
have said "Rajmane" is terrorist. Then if one member deletes, it doesn
go...100 members have to delte it, then the name will disappear.
Plus, if system is popular enough, there will be journalists and
police interested. They will have valuable inputs.
We won't be tracking ip address of members, so no-one has to fear.
Terrorists or police anyone has free hand, within rules!
Its number game. We move by principle that most of people are good!

Ravi, you input was good. Hope i'am able to answer some of your and
sudarshans concerns. But, reality is that i'am also not sure exactly
how to do this. We have to brain storm and comeout with solution. And
it is experiment after all. Nobody will be harassed, because his name
comes in this system. It is public system. Without proof, police can't
catch anyone. So even if there is some false information in system, it
is harmless. But think of good information!!! That can save lives!
Ganesh thanks for your help. All of us are needed in such an effort.

Count on me

Posted by Ganesh

The same thoughts occurred to me on first thought as well.
But what Mahesh is proposing is to do an experiment. I think its based on an assumption that all the people using this tool have an intention to fight terror and will not misuse the system.
But as Ravi pointed out there is a possibility that terrorists will misuse the system. Another possibility is that, it could be misused by miscreants to target innocent people. So there has to be a way to verify the data getting entered in to this system.
We can have thoughts coming in to eliminate such errors to make this system most accurate.
All in all this is an excellent idea. Count me in Mahesh, if you need me.

Problems

Posted by Ravi

With due respect to your idea and your striving to come up with some
solution to the problem, I see a couple issues:

1. What are you trying to achieve? A pattern of the terrorist
activities?! The terrorism is here for decades, and you can use the
PAST
DATA to derive the patterns. You won't want to wait for another 5/10
years to develop just a pattern, right?

2. You are talking about a public system; it means that the system will
be accessible to the terrorists as well. They can lull the system by
entering the false information; worse even, they can delete some of the
correct information that others have entered. By the way, I understand
that the terrorists trying to lull the system would be a reflection on
the systems success; and then probably you can develop some other
pattern to detect such modifications to system data and hence detect
the
terrorists; but that seems a long way down.

How do you propose to address the above issues?

By the way, I am not very sure but I don't think you can apply the
wikipedia principle to the issue no. 2. The wikipedia designated
editors
edit the (public submitted) content in order to make it accurate, well
structured and well worded. They do this by using the past evidences
for
verification of the accuracy. And they also kind of strive to build the
consensus. You are talking about the content that nobody has any past
knowledge of; so there is no question of building the consensus on such
data.

More about Countering Terrorism

Posted by Mahesh

I had goen thru lot of terror sites to see if our idea is
duplicate. First glance it looks like it is. But take www.tkb.org for
instance. It is govt controlled!!!Obviously information will be
manipulated. Second, it is not open. We cant go and simply update it.
What im tlakign is creating a brain and let it run. People add info
ppl delete info..ppl modify info..based on some rule. Im talking about
something like en.wikipedia.org. For people by people. Ofcourse RAW
and CBI will have such database. But they wont be complete, because
they have their own inputs. Problme is -
1) politically motivated
2) Low input
We build systme on wikipedia principle. Here is what someone said abut
it.
"Wikipedia, an online encyclopedia based on the unlikely notion that
an entry can be added by any web user, and edited by any other, is a
radical experiment in trust, applying Eric Raymond's dictum
(originally coined in the context of open source software) that "with
enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow," to content creation. Wikipedia
is already in the top 100 websites, and many think it will be in the
top ten before long. This is a profound change in the dynamics of
content creation!"

Countering Terrorism

Posted by Mahesh

We lost our sleep since mumbai blasts.Had to think day and night, as
to what we can do? I thought almost eveyrthing, from brewing our own
(counter)terror network to joining politics. One idea struck me,
making our own intelligence network! We run experiement as to if it is
possible to make an open intelligence system. A system where ordinary
man on road has access. He/She can access, add and delete information.
A system which will have inputs on every known (unknown?) terror
agents. How they are connected? What are strong and weak points?
Locations as and when are known? I wonder how such system will evolve
if it is left to itself? Mathematics works in wonderful ways! May be
there is pattern into terrorism, which we will see. If we draw maps
between location and agents and conenction. May be we will see
something. May be system will become popular/intelligent enough that
people on street will start giving info about real threats? What kind
of data mining tools will be required for such social enginneering
task! There will be interesting information to play with.
Next Question is how to do it?
We register some website say indianterrordatabase.co.in. We build
software, where users can enter information like
* Names, time and locations where terror events happened in past.
* extra info Number of poeple injured killed etc..
* Terror Agents information. Names, location(?), Phone numbers(?),
connectivity with other agents! Position! Importance..etc..etc...
We also develop data mining visual tools..to drill thru data and see
the connections visually. Once stage is set...we let it run for few
months. We let is evolved...ocasionally adjusting it with need...
I'm sure, something wonderful will happen.
Financially it will cost nothing...We need web designers and
programmers for it. Some of us may be able to contribute.

This is just a idea. I belive in it and im going ahead with it. But,
this is not one mans job. We are building a intelligence network here.
For people , by people, of people!!!
More inputs and ideas are required. Programming skills are required
and ofcourse finance is required.
Intelligence will automatically come in !!!

Starting Discussion

Basic idea is to make intelligence network, which will capture information related to terrorism. Everybody will have access to that network and can give every possible input about terrorism. Information captured from such network may be helpful to fight against terrorism.